polymarket03

what's polymarket?

Polymarket is the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform, enabling users to trade shares on real-world event outcomes like politics, sports, and crypto trends. Built on Polygon and Ethereum, it uses USDC for secure, transparent bets that reflect market probabilities. The platform democratizes forecasting by allowing anyone to create and participate in markets without intermediaries.

Snapshot

Polymarket gained 14.3% of prediction market volume; CFTC included execs on advisory committee.

1H ago
ONCHAIN METRICS

Captured 14.3% of the prediction market daily volume on 2026-01-12, when the total market reached an all-time high of over $700 million.

13H ago
REGULATORY

CFTC Chair Michael Selig included Polymarket executives on the newly unveiled Innovation Advisory Committee.

1D ago
ONCHAIN METRICS

Volume in 2025 rotated across multiple categories throughout the year with no single category dominating for an extended period.

RISK ALERT

Experiencing UI performance issues with slow loading on mobile and missing login button preventing users from claiming profits.

REGULATORY

Ukraine officially blocked access to Polymarket under Resolution No. 695, with the national electronic communications regulator (NCEC) citing lack of required gambling license and adding the domain to the public registry of banned internet resources.

REGULATORY

received CFTC approval in December 2025

WHALE ACTIVITY

Multiple new accounts placed large bets totaling over $100K on the January 2026 Iran leadership market, with individual positions ranging from $15K to $30K.

2D ago
ONCHAIN METRICS

Transactions consume over 75% of Polygon blockspace.

PARTNERSHIP

Completed a deal with NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) for prediction market integration or collaboration.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Averaged 300-400 active users per day on MetaMask integration during approximately the first month of operation, with $700k in total notional volume.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Featured as a predicted winner for 2026 on the All-In podcast by David Friedberg, who described evolution from niche prediction market to a platform providing insights on current events and news, with expectations that traditional financial trading platforms will partner with Polymarket.

3D ago
MARKET ACTIVITY

Opened platform access to US users with a $10 initial trading incentive.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Generated approximately 20% of total volume during Q4 2025.

REGULATORY

Received a cease-and-desist order from Tennessee regulators requiring the platform to stop offering sports event contracts to Tennessee residents, halt all Tennessee-based activity, void open contracts, and refund deposits by 2026-01-31, as the state considers such contracts to constitute unlicensed sports betting under Tennessee law.

TEAM UPDATE

Hired a Chinese-speaking business development team member who is currently studying at Stanford and is recruiting customer service personnel fluent in both Chinese and English to serve users in the Chinese region.

4D ago
VISIBILITY EVENT

Launched a new market asking whether Satoshi will move any Bitcoin in 2026.

PARTNERSHIP

Named as the exclusive prediction market partner of the Golden Globes, with the event scheduled for January 11, 2026.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Recorded 8.9 million transactions for the week, ranking second among prediction markets.

5D ago
OPINION SPECULATION

Market odds on Polymarket for Ayatollah Khamenei's regime falling reached 55% on January 8, 2026.

MARKET ACTIVITY

Ranked in the top 15 most in-demand startup secondary shares in Q4 2025, representing the biggest jump among all companies tracked and making its second appearance on the list after debuting in Q3 2025.

MARKET ACTIVITY

Launched new market on whether a country will leave BRICS in 2026.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Users wagered $3.3 million on the return of Jesus Christ market in 2025.

PARTNERSHIP

Named Official and Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.

PARTNERSHIP

Partners with Delphi to curate markets tied to Delphi's research reports, launching 11 markets as part of this collaboration.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Launched a new prediction market for the Russian election winner.

6D ago
PARTNERSHIP

Signed an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media to provide prediction market data to outlets including Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, and Investor's Business Daily.

1W ago
TECH EVENT

Launches mobile app on 2026-01-13.

TOKEN ECONOMICS

Introduced taker-only fees on 15-minute crypto markets, with collected fees redistributed daily in USDC to market makers through the Maker Rebates Program to improve liquidity and tighten spreads, while most markets remain fee-free.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Experienced a major dispute over an outcome in 2025, including the Zelensky suit-gate case, the Time Person of the Year controversy where an "other" option was added too late, and the Coinbase earnings call that mentioned keywords for multiple markets.

PARTNERSHIP

Integrated with Towns app to enable users to place bets on Polymarket directly within the Towns platform.

TECH EVENT

Verifiable AI feature is live and operational.

REGULATORY

U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce legislation barring federal officials from trading on prediction markets with nonpublic information, citing Polymarket's lack of explicit insider trading ban compared to rival Kalshi.

TECH EVENT

Launches NFT price prediction markets.

PARTNERSHIP

Partners with Parcl to launch real estate prediction markets powered by Parcl's on-chain housing price indices tracking median price per square foot across major U.S. cities and metros.

OPINION SPECULATION

Is looking to Hyperliquid for airdrop inspiration, with speculation that approximately 31% of token supply could be allocated to community at TGE (equivalent to over $1 billion) and cumulative trading volume could be the primary eligibility factor.

PARTNERSHIP

Integrated with BasedOneX (also called Based) to enable prediction market trading alongside equities and perps on their everything app platform.

PARTNERSHIP

Integrated into Synthesis Trade public beta, which aggregates prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi into a single cross-platform trading interface.

PARTNERSHIP

Integrated with TradeOnsight, a Telegram-based trading tool that enables Polymarket trading through Telegram group chats and individual accounts with points and referral programs.

WHALE ACTIVITY

A newly created account placed a $32,537 bet on December 27, 2025, on Maduro's exit within a month, closing the position with over $400,000 profit (1,242% gain) in less than 24 hours.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Reached $338M in open interest among prediction markets as of January 2026.

WHALE ACTIVITY

A whale with -$3M profit and loss is accumulating yes shares in a volatile market on Polymarket.

FINANCIAL EVENT

TGE scheduled for Q2 2026 with approximately $2B in funding from investors including ICE, Founders Fund, and 1789 Capital.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Launched a new prediction market on whether a nuclear bomb sized meteor strike will occur in 2026.

2W ago
MARKET ACTIVITY

Launched a new prediction market on silver prices for January.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Has over 1.7 million addresses, with approximately 30% realizing profits and 70% showing realized losses, where less than 0.04% of top addresses captured over 70% of total realized profits.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Named Media Brand of the Year by Troy Young in "People vs Algorithms"

OPINION SPECULATION

Many believe token launch will occur around the 2026 World Cup timeframe.

PARTNERSHIP

Integrated with Firefly app, enabling Polymarket links to display as live, tradable cards within the Firefly interface.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Users predict an 88% probability that the Fed will not make rate cut changes on January 28, 2025, according to prediction market data.

TECH EVENT

Enabled embedding of market infrastructure into Privy apps through integration.

PARTNERSHIP

Integrated Privy wallets with bankrbot as the first bot to support this wallet type.

OPINION SPECULATION

Can earn up to 12% APY by exploiting Polymarket according to a trading strategy mentioned in a daily roundup.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Nominated for the Defi Excellence Award with winner announcement scheduled for 2025-12-30.

RISK ALERT

Confirmed a security breach affecting a small number of users, caused by a third-party authentication flaw that bypassed 2FA, which has been fixed.

RISK ALERT

Expanded the one-time password (OTP) from 3 digits to 6 digits following the security incident, suggesting the original OTP was vulnerable to brute-force attempts.

3W ago
RISK ALERT

Multiple user accounts using Magic Link authentication were reportedly drained, indicating a potential ongoing security issue.

REGULATORY

FBI raided the CEO's home during the Biden administration.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Used as a platform where odds for Aave's brand ownership proposal passing are reportedly around 25%.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Featured on a Netflix special that was watched globally.

TECH EVENT

Plans to launch own Ethereum L2 "very soon"

TEAM UPDATE

Added Donald Trump Jr. to advisory board.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Reached 75% odds for a December 29th airdrop for Lighter token ($LIT) according to market pricing.

TECH EVENT

Migrated off Polygon blockchain to another chain or infrastructure.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Rebranded social media handle from @Polymarket to @Poly on December 20, 2025.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Sponsored a fighter's necklace in a boxing match that received significant media exposure and airtime, with the marketing spend estimated at around $500,000.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Ran advertisement placements during a televised event, generating positive social media discussion about the marketing execution.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Reached approximately $54 million in total volume on the Joshua vs. Paul boxing match market, with ~$37M on Paul and Draw/Not scored outcomes and ~$17M on Joshua win.

MARKET ACTIVITY

Launched a market on whether an AI data center moratorium will be passed before 2027.

RISK ALERT

Experienced service disruption caused by Polygon network issues, which has been resolved with site and functions restored.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Will be featured in a live webinar titled "Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets" hosted by Dune on December 23, 2025 at 11AM ET, with a Senior Data Engineer from Polymarket participating as a speaker.

VISIBILITY EVENT

Ranked second place in the app of the year contest in the 2025 crypto awards hosted by JokeRace.

TECH EVENT

Launched Rust CLOB client for institutional use.

TEAM UPDATE

Hired a new team member to join the sports division, working under the sports lead.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Reached approximately 339,700 active wallets during the week ending December 17, 2025.

ONCHAIN METRICS

grew user base to over 600,000, representing 150x growth since early 2024

1M ago
ONCHAIN METRICS

Records new transaction highs almost every week on Polygon chain.

MARKET ACTIVITY

Launched a new prediction market on Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor.

ONCHAIN METRICS

Outperforms approximately 85% of crypto protocols on user retention metrics.

Platform processes $2B+ in monthly volume with projections for tens of billions in total volume this year. (ID: 2000839563519160760)

Platform bonds provide 20% APY yields on stablecoins.

Platform integrates with Inference Labs to enable deployment of AI trading agents that can use proprietary data sources and any major AI model. (ID: 2000704188636864517)

Builder ecosystem shows 9 apps reaching $1M in monthly volume with overall volume growing 4.5x+ from October to November. (ID: 2000688344372486371)

Platform releases Polymarket Pro beta codes to initial waitlist users and offers 2% cashback on trades through World App integration for verified users.

Platform TVL surpasses Pump.fun as of November and continues to extend the lead. (ID: 2000650518549381187)

Platform records over $2B in monthly volume with tens of billions in total volume expected this year as prediction markets absorb real capital flow. (ID: 2000634462602702919)

Platform records $1.2B in weekly spot volume placing second among three major prediction markets, while industry participants at recent conferences express strong preference over Kalshi citing fully onchain nature and crypto ethos. (ID: 2000598845328421026, 2000603910378041531)

Predict platform launches tomorrow and includes Polymarket users with meaningful trading volume in airdrop eligibility snapshot alongside users from other prediction markets and DeFi platforms. (ID: 2000581755892572351)

The US version of the platform is being rolled out with a dedicated app to maximize onboarding potential.

Converge Markets, a multi-venue aggregator platform currently in beta testing, integrates Polymarket alongside other venues with zero fees and an interface designed to match familiar prediction market platforms. (ID: 2000397829034938803)

Gondor launches lending feature for Polymarket positions, enabling users to collateralize their bets and borrow USDC at up to ~50% LTV with potential to loop to ~2x leverage. (ID: 2000365707809391037, 2000369314822836335)

MetaMask integrates Polymarket, and Rainbow wallet launches public testflight for mobile Polymarket integration on Tuesday.

Odds of BTC reaching $100K by year-end fall below 20% on prediction markets, continuing decline from the below 30% level reported on December 11.

Platform powers Bullpen sports betting product claiming 43% higher payouts versus traditional sportsbooks.

Asynchronus_ai deploys a live Polymarket scanner in Phase 1, enabling real-time market monitoring for ecosystem agents. (ID: 2000194749597450680)

Platform operates a massive in-house content production team producing high-volume, high-quality content, shifting away from outsourcing to agencies. (ID: 2000138223729979420)

Polymarket secures $2B investment from ICE, regains US regulatory approval for Polymarket US launch, and integrates with X, Google, and Yahoo. Platform scales to 50k+ new markets and 400k+ traders monthly, with ~$300M daily open interest and ~$12B monthly volume.

Onsight tool is back online, ranked top 15 by volume, offering direct market trading through Telegram with bot integration capabilities.

Converge launches as a zero-fee cross-venue aggregation platform with live Polymarket execution and top 10 Builder Leaderboard ranking.